This project estimates the economic value of Russian military fatalities using the
Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) framework. VSL is commonly used in public policy
and cost-benefit analysis to measure the value of reducing mortality risk. It does
not represent the market price of an individual life.
The Russian VSL estimate is derived using a benefits-transfer approach associated
with the VSL literature, including Viscusi's framework. The model transfers the
U.S. Department of Transportation VSL to Russia by adjusting for income differences
using GNI per capita.
VSLRussia,t =
VSLUS,t ×
(GNIRussia,t / GNIUS,t)ε
- VSLUS,t: U.S. Department of Transportation VSL estimate.
- GNI per capita: World Bank Atlas-method GNI per capita for Russia and the United States.
- ε: income elasticity assumption used to transfer VSL across countries.
- Fatality baseline: 500,000 Russian military fatalities as of June 1, 2026.
- Baseline result: approximately $1.28 trillion as of June 1, 2026.
After June 1, 2026, the live counter increases at the average historical rate implied
by the period from February 24, 2022 to June 1, 2026. This produces a continuously
updated estimate, but it should be interpreted as an extrapolated analytical measure,
not as a confirmed real-time casualty count or a direct fiscal expenditure.